Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.327200 0.371163 0.418876 0.474515 0.537628 0.607018 0.689125
2025-10-05 0.271057 0.331122 0.401270 0.489280 0.596833 0.724106 0.886346
2025-10-12 0.221940 0.289811 0.374479 0.487958 0.636279 0.823863 1.079666
2025-10-19 0.186800 0.259408 0.355677 0.492832 0.683618 0.940252 1.312849
2025-10-26 0.161730 0.237814 0.344570 0.505571 0.742915 1.081078 1.601666
2025-11-02 0.133593 0.207137 0.315894 0.488816 0.757871 1.162293 1.819831
2025-11-09 0.109468 0.178322 0.285249 0.463858 0.756126 1.217974 2.008264
2025-11-16 0.093327 0.159243 0.266421 0.453948 0.775717 1.308714 2.265815
2025-11-23 0.079898 0.142394 0.248493 0.442409 0.790335 1.392811 2.525024
2025-11-30 0.072266 0.134227 0.243817 0.452600 0.843459 1.549490 2.935138
2025-12-07 0.062068 0.119841 0.226026 0.436360 0.846160 1.616408 3.191099
2025-12-14 0.054743 0.109671 0.214391 0.429672 0.865397 1.716033 3.524299
2025-12-21 0.047935 0.099697 0.202122 0.420793 0.880874 1.814426 3.879533
2025-12-28 0.044392 0.095757 0.201141 0.434566 0.944605 2.019262 4.490736
2026-01-04 0.039921 0.089178 0.193804 0.433891 0.977882 2.166349 5.003750
2026-01-11 0.036465 0.084261 0.189254 0.438580 1.023754 2.347921 5.626309
2026-01-18 0.033925 0.081005 0.187854 0.450169 1.087253 2.578979 6.405157
2026-01-25 0.029886 0.073623 0.176008 0.435452 1.086430 2.661120 6.838681
2026-02-01 0.025931 0.065824 0.162034 0.413369 1.064089 2.688268 7.139526
2026-02-08 0.023248 0.060767 0.153923 0.404636 1.073963 2.796624 7.670595
2026-02-15 0.020814 0.055967 0.145741 0.394424 1.078361 2.891753 8.183513
2026-02-22 0.019579 0.054140 0.144890 0.403544 1.136114 3.136432 9.155067
2026-03-01 0.017430 0.049494 0.135943 0.389112 1.126482 3.197091 9.611605